Big Air

Clifford Adoptante 2-1 Confident, bold, slick and on a roll, The Flyin' Hawaiian comes to Winter X fresh off his Vans Triple Crown Championship, a Silver Medal at Summer X (with some saying he should have taken Gold over golden boy Pastrana), along with strong performances at the ESPN FreeRide Moto-X Championships. His Silver at last year's Winter X shows he won't freeze up in the cold. He's the favorite, sporting his no-handed catwalk in the Big Air, the only question is whether the judges are getting a little blasé having seen this heart-stopping trick many times now.

Nate Adams 3-1 Young Nate, 17, has exploded on the freestyle scene with wins in the FreeRide Moto-X Championships and a second place overall in the Triple Crown. His signature trick is the way, way sick Tsnuami - a beyond vertical Kiss of Death he's pushing even further by extending his legs almost over his head and behind him (or is that in front, even though it's past his back?). The only question is experience - he was uneven at the last Triple Crown event and the best of Nate didn't show up at Summer X, and this will be his first time leaping on snow. And hmmm, there's also talk of a bodacious babe on the young man's arm that may be causing distraction in a sport with precious little margin for less than total commitment (make no mistake, however, as most of the fellows have indeed mastered the delicate balance of nurturing female companionship and maintaining the requisite psycho dirt jumping mentality. Nate surely will, too. Eventually. But is that time now?

Doug Parsons 5-1 Sweet Dougie, the former podium supercrosser, is all about skills, slickness and a very, very sick trick with his eye-popping whipped no footed nac nac. Landing that adrenaline-pumper could find Doug atop the freestyle moto x podium. With his racing experience, calm demeanor and flat-out gutsiness, his first time on the snow is not likely to be much of a hindrance. This could be his breakthrough event - judges and fmx cognoscenti already know him, maybe the fans will catch up.

Brian Deegan 7-1 The Metal Mulisha front man can handle a bike like few others, of that there is no doubt. But he's still slowed by a nagging ankle injury from earlier in the year, and lately he doesn't seem to be at his best at contests. He'll have to pull something we've never seen him do before, but surprising people is not something new to Deegs, so don't count him out, but don't lay down the rent money either. Unless, of course, the fans could vote then it would hardly matter what he did - he'd win.

Mike Jones 7-1 It may seem harsh that the defending Winter X Champ, Mad Mike, is relatively long money. But Jonsey breaking out the Kiss of Death last year is old news now, and no one has seen him pull anything that's nearly as cutting edge the rest of the 01 season. Add to that, he just cracked a vertebra after a recent crash, and he'll be coming to Winter X without much practice or the chance to really develop something new. The only caveat: if the conditions the day of competition are harsh - and we are jumping dirt bikes in the snow, for crissakes! -- Iron Mike, he of the Iron Will and of a Pennsylvania mill town upbringing -- will not be cowed and you'll see the odds drop in his favor.

Kris Rourke 10-1 It's also harsh to point out that Rourke, has, well, choked under pressure in the past, despite a vast array of skills and a huge bag of tricks. But there have been exceptions: a couple of years back in evil conditions at a FreeRide event in Vegas, and more recently, at the X Qualifier in Nashville, Rourke thrived on the pressure and pulled impressive wins - and shocking the freestyle world in the later contest with the first ever no-handed fender grab, called The Rock Solid. He has been banged up recently, and there's always the question of which Kris is coming to town: the one who thrives under pressure and adversity, or the one who lets it overwhelm him.

Justin Homan 10-1 Justin, our dirt bike riding bean-counting CPA, suddenly burst on the FMX Big Air radar screen with his debut of the Holy Man at the FreeRide event in Nashville - flying over his bike held by a bungee cord. A freak of nature of a first step to a new generation of tricks? The jury is still out as the judges run hot and cold on what it's a gimmick or groundbreaking. Homan might just shock everyone by taking the bungee concept to a whole new level. If not, expect a solid performance, and a long shot at a gold medal-winning one, because this guy is not only certified to do your taxes, but he just might be certifiable in a mental health context that leaves him with a scary fearlessness to try just about anything.

Tommy Clowers 12-1 Look, no doubt that The Tomcat is one of the most solid and smoothest riders in the history of sport, not to mention the greatest step-up competitor ever. But he's never been about the one big, sick, psycho trick that blows you away. He'll pull solid tricks, and he may well be top three, but we haven't seen anything new and exciting from Clowers since the Look Back Hart Attack and that certainly isn't going to get him a Gold. Not with this bunch of loonies, anyway, with more than a few of them willing to put life, limb and sanity on the line to snatch immortality, attract women and secure new sponsor contracts with X Games Gold.

Dan Pastor 20-1 The WFA Champ is not only fearless but also a bit insane. And the weather conditions will not be a factor working against the Pennsylvania born-and-bred kid who grew up riding in the cold and the snow. But since winning the World Title no doubt Dan has been, well, enjoying himself with aplomb, and the trick that was a cornerstone of his title run, the Starfish, is not going to be enough for Gold.

Kenny Bartram 30-1 No offense to The Cowboy, and reigning Big Air Gold Medallist from Summer X, but the kind of combo trick that won for him in Philly won't cut it at the Winter Games. For back-to-back Gold, perhaps Bartram will have to take some lessons from Travis and attempt the body varial that's been rumored about for a season or to. Or maybe it's the beard that's holding you back Kenny!

Trevor Vines 30-1 Trevor came on strong in the second half of 01. But going purely big and sick is not his forte. And while the Sterilizer in the snow would be sketchy and impressive if stomped cleanly, it's still not likely will it be enough to earn a victory. If past is prelude, we haven't seen any huge, pioneering tricks from Vines, so unless he has something we don't know about we probably won't see Trevor on the podium. Don't get us wrong, he's a good guy, great rider and chicks dig him, but he's just not Winter X Big Air Gold Medal material.

Manu Troux 50-1 The charismatic Frenchman is like an unlabeled bottle of French wine. It can't be bad, but just how good is the question. No one doubts this rider's raw skills or fearlessness. But no has seen that much of him either. He came across the pond last Spring to compete in the FreeRide in Colorado Springs, and after impressing in practice, he left a lasting impression on everyone's mind in the world of freestyle mx with what is perhaps the most horrifying crash ever seen - arms flailing in mid-air while his bike sailed away on a missed two-handed fender grab over a 105-foot gap. But he's said to be riding good and back from the results of his mid-air miss, a snapped femur. The other question mark: can the Fox-sponsored Frog jump his best in the cold, conditions he's probably never faced on a bike before? How will he handle his first foray with the X Games hoopla? We shall see, but Mon Dieu!, we're not betting on it.

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